The hottest machinery manufacturing leader acceler

Machinery manufacturing: the leader accelerates to recommend 2 shares to the sea

the key points of the report are optimistic about the core logic of the lithium battery equipment industry: high demand growth and overseas acceleration breakthrough. The lithium battery equipment industry has broad demand space due to the high growth in the downstream. The acceleration of the expansion of global battery leaders leads to the establishment of industry demand in 2019. Product customization attributes and technology upgrading trends will support the profitability of lithium battery equipment enterprises, The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to become one of the most impressive links in the automotive industry chain; At present, domestic equipment leaders are accelerating the development of overseas markets with the advantages of technology, scale and cost

the battery leader leads a new round of production expansion. The demand for lithium battery equipment is booming, and the key to the increase in the market share of polyurethane insulation materials in China is scientific and technological innovation. The new energy passenger vehicle cycle launched in 2018 will promote the expansion of lithium battery industry into a new stage. Based on the rising demand of downstream new energy vehicle terminals and the strong electrification plan of global vehicle enterprises, the strong demand of the medium and long-term power battery industry leads to a broad demand space for the lithium battery equipment industry. In the next five years, the global demand will reach 1100gwh (accounting for about half of overseas), and the market space will be close to 200billion yuan; The differentiation of passenger car batteries requires that leading battery enterprises should be promoted to occupy the market share. They should also conform to a variety of domestic and international norms, integrate a variety of experimental methods, and greatly improve their body rate, and will lead this round of production expansion. In 2019, the global battery leader will enter the expansion competition period, and the certainty and intensity of production expansion are expected to exceed expectations. It is expected that the new demand for lithium battery equipment in the whole year will reach 105gwh, an increase of 50% year-on-year, while according to the production expansion plan of battery enterprises, it has reached 155gwh, a year-on-year doubling

lithium battery equipment leaders accelerated to the sea, and the product upgrading trend continued. Domestic lithium battery equipment enterprises have significant advantages in scale, cost and supporting services. Under the background of sustained and rapid growth in R & D investment, the technical level of the middle and later stages has gradually caught up with Japan and South Korea, and the gap between the front stage coating and mixing and Japanese enterprises has narrowed significantly. Since Q4 2018, domestic lithium battery equipment enterprises have accelerated supporting or fixed-point LG chemistry Tesla, northvolt and other overseas enterprises. The profitability of each link of lithium battery equipment is differentiated due to the diversity of technical barriers, industry pattern and customer structure of the technology impact experiment. At present, the middle winding maintains a high profitability due to high technical requirements and good competition pattern. The post segment chemical composition capacity is more profitable due to the very stable performance of such systems as exports and components, high reliability ratio, and fierce competition in the front segment, resulting in pressure on profitability. Differentiated and customized product features will support lithium battery equipment enterprises to maintain high bargaining power. Equipment technology upgrading (efficiency improvement, etc.) is the main reason for the decline in investment in battery expansion units. In 2019, the risk of equipment price reduction caused by factors such as the decline of electric vehicle subsidies is controllable

investment suggestion: the growth rate of orders determines the inflection point, and overseas expansion boosts the valuation. We resumed the stock price trend of lithium battery equipment sector since 2017 and found that: 1) new orders are the core indicators affecting the sector, and each round of market startup is driven by the upward growth rate of new orders; The release effect is relatively delayed; 2) As the current round of demand is dominated by battery leaders, the existing customer structure and the progress of expanding overseas customers are the main reasons for the great differentiation of the stock price trend of equipment enterprises in this round, and the alpha effect of equipment leaders continues to strengthen. We judge that the high prosperity of the industry will continue in 2019, and tend to be optimistic about the sustainability of 2020. We recommend leading intelligence (industry leader, high certainty), () (underestimated value); Other targets include (), (), etc

（： hn888）